PUBG Survivor and Wanderer Crate Drop Rate Estimates

 

PUBG Wanderer and Survivor Crate Item Drop Survey

After a lot of data collection, I have come up with what I believe to be good estimates of what the % drop rates are for the various rarity categories for the Wanderer and Survivor Crates in PUBG. I do not think this is a perfect analysis, but I believe it is a good starting point until PLAYERUNKNOWN himself releases the actual drop rates.

Assumptions

  • All items are listed at a rate proportionally to the rate they are being found for new items. Without this assumption, this drop rate projection would have been impossible.
  • Different tiers of crates do not vary in odds of dropping different rarity items. Meaning, Random Weekly Crate #1 costing 700 BP has the same odds of containing a red/violet/purple/blue/green/gray as Random Weekly Crate #2-6. This was believed to be the case for Pioneer crates.
  • The number of listings for old items since August 3rd is equal to the average of the active listings for new items. This is to account for disproportionately high number of listings of items that have been on the PUBG marketplace for months.
  • All items with the same color coded rarities in Wanderer & Survivor crate have same drop rates
  • Drop rates for new items in each rarity class reflects older item drop rates in the same case
  • Data collected at 4pm MT on 8/7 reflects historical rates

Data Collection

To calculate these percentages, first I observed how many items were listed in the Steam Marketplace for all 52 items in the W&S crates (26 items available in each). I realized that there were significantly more listings for items previously available in PUBG to the release of the W&S crates. I discovered that W&S crates both have the same amount of new items in each rarity category (1 red, 2 violet, 3 purple, 3 blue, 1 green, 5 gray).

 

Summing listings of all possible items disproportionately weights categories that have lots of older PUBG items. So I assumed that the number of active new listings since August 3rd for old items is equal to the average of the active listings for new items.

For example, there are over 5,000 listings for the Light Blue Long Sleeved T-Shirt. The average count of listings for new gray items in the Wanderer crate is 303.2. I used this average as an estimate for the number of new listings for every OLD gray item. I calculated average listings of new items in all rarity categories, and used these estimates to calculate a total number of new active listings for all items in the wanderer crate, which was 4666.4

I did the same process for the Survivor crate, which came up with a remarkably close number, 4515.266667.

 

With these category totals, it was easy to calculate the % of all listings in each rarity category.

 


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